In a new poll released by the Washington Post, former Gov. Mark Warner continues to crush his potential GOP foes:
Mark Warner (D): 63%
Tom Davis (R): 28%Mark Warner (D): 61%
Jim Gilmore (R): 31%(MoE: ±3%)
My favorite nugget of the poll? This one:
In Davis’ own base of Fairfax County, Warner beats Davis 57%-33%. And among self-described conservatives, whom Gilmore has been courting, four in ten say they would vote for Warner.
So let’s get this straight: in Tom Davis’ backyard, where name recognition is no problem for him, Mark Warner’s numbers are barely dented. Perhaps it’s not surprising, given that Warner enjoys a 67%/17% favorable/unfavorable rating throughout the state. Fairfax voters may think well of Tom Davis, but they like Mark Warner a whole heck of a lot more. So much for the idea of a tight race in NoVa with Tom Davis at the helm.
Speaking of Davis, are we being too presumptive in thinking that he’ll get the nomination? The poll also shows Davis trailing former Gov. Jim Gilmore by a 48-29 margin in a primary match-up… and that’s assuming a primary even happens (it could be decided by a nominating convention, in which Gilmore is seen as having the inside edge on the more moderate Davis).
works the other way: it is possible that Warner will sweep the dominion of VA with a whopper landslide and bring the DEM national ticket, presumably HRC, with him. VA could very well be the flip-state that puts HRC over the top, should she win.
Expect Warner to have his eyes on the White House in 2016, maybe in 2012, depending on outcome of 2008.
Thoughts?
Does anyone have any sense of the likelihood that he backs out entirely? Hopefully it’s zero, cause I want that House seat.
might make Davis’ decision to run for the Senate easier. The Dem candidate in VA-11 would not be as strong as Warner, but the partisan trend in the district strongly favors Democrats.
On the other hand, making it through a primary (much less a convention) against Gilmore and then beating Warner in a year that is not looking to be favorable for the GOP seems to be a very uphill climb.
Davis is a good strategist, so it will be interesting to see what he decides to do.
I’m surprised to see Gilmore doing better than Davis against Mark Warner in the poll (though both are crushed), but I guess that’s because Davis is still unknown to most Virginians.